2004—2017年浙江省较大以上生产安全事故统计分析

为充分探究浙江省生产安全事故发生规律,以2004—2017年浙江省生产安全事故为研究对象,从事故发生的时间关系、区域分布、行业分布、事故类型分布等方面对全省总体、工矿商贸领域、化工领域、典型危险作业4个分类的较大以上事故特点进行了剖析研究;并从政府监管的角度,提出事故防范的措施和建议。     

Determination of emergency assembly point for industrial accidents with AHP analysis

Major industrial accidents, which are a type of technological disaster, are very important due to the security risks and financial damages that threaten the environment and human health in today's industrialization. In this study, it was aimed to propose an approach that will guide the decision makers to choose the emergency assembly point that should be in the distance or shelter where the employees will be not affected by the negative consequences of emergencies within the scope of the obligation of industrial establishments preparing an internal emergency plan for major industrial accidents. For this purpose, in the first stage, modelling studies were carried out with ALOHA (Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) Software over possible accident scenarios in an industrial establishment containing different types and amounts of hazardous chemicals. As a result of modelling studies, possible toxic emissions, fire and explosion effect distances and threat zones for the industrial establishment were obtained. In the second stage, the weights of the main and sub-selection criteria to be used in determining the assembly point were calculated. This stage was carried out based on the comparison data obtained as a result of the questionnaire applied to professionals with the help of AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method, which is one of the multi-criteria decision making methods. In the last stage, three candidate points were selected considering the physical effect areas determined in the first stage in the boundaries of the establishment, where the employees were evaluated to be affected the minimum from the negative consequences of industrial accidents. These candidate points were evaluated again with the AHP method on the basis of the sub-criteria whose relative weights were determined in the second stage and a selection was made. As a result, an approach that provides the solution of our problem was obtained.     

模糊综合评价法在道路运输企业安全评价中的应用

我国道路运输企业交通安全形势比较严峻,推行道路运输企业安全综合评价是降低道路运输企业交通事故的有效途径之一.本文运用Delphi法和AHP法建立了道路运输企业安全层次分析模型,构建了安全综合评价指标体系.选用基于"差动"原理的赋权法--G1法计算各指标的权重,应用模糊综合评价法对其进行安全综合评价.采用平均加权法对评价因素的各项指标进行量化处理,从而得到道路运输企业安全的综合评价结果.最后,对陕西省一家道路运输企业进行了实际验证,比较真实地反映了此企业的安全状况.     

Structural equation model of the influence of noise annoyance on miners’ unsafe behavior in coal mines

Miners' unsafe behavior (UB) is the main cause of coal mine accidents. Previous research has suggested that excessive noise in tunnels impacts miners' temperaments and safe production behavior. To explore the influence of noise on UB, four different dimensions of noise annoyance were identified: cognitive, emotional, communication, and physical mechanism annoyance. The coal mine noise annoyance scale, miners' unsafe behavior intention (UBI) scale, and miners’ UB scale were developed according to different dimensions. In the first survey, a total of 200 questionnaires were distributed in the two coal mines, and 193 valid questionnaires were recovered. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted, and invalid items were removed according to the analysis results to form the final scale. Then, 500 final scales were distributed in two Chinese coal mines, and 482 valid questionnaires were collected. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted by collating the data of the second questionnaire. Based upon the structural equation model (SEM), the SEM of the influence of noise annoyance degree on UB and the path analysis with latent variable path analysis with the latent variables (PA-LVs) mediating model of the effect of UBI on UB were established, and the path coefficients with fitting data of the model were analyzed. The results indicated that the four dimensions of coal mine noise annoyance had a strong positive impact on UB, which was reduced by less noise annoyance. In addition, the Bootstrap method was used to verify the mediating method among the four dimensions of noise annoyance, cognitive annoyance, emotional annoyance, with communication annoyance indirectly affecting UB through UBI. The research results provide theoretical support for reducing the UB of miners and improving coal mine safety levels.     

创新应对重大环境事件思维推动环保战略转型

本文系环境保护部原总工程师、中国环境科学学会副理事长杨朝飞在“2013年全国环境政策法制工作研讨会”上做的关于我国如何应对重大环境事件专题讲座内容整理,以飨读者.     

Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.     

电站锅炉安全管理

本文对锅炉危险、有害因素和事故进行了分析,从锅炉的设计、制造、安装、调试、检验、修理和改造等环节阐述了锅炉安全管理的有关要求,并重点阐述了锅炉使用(运行)过程中的安全管理和锅炉"四管"爆漏的预防措施。     

基于分形学的瓦斯爆炸事故时序数据分析模型及应用

针对煤矿瓦斯爆炸灾害子系统的复杂非线性动力学特性,以南方某省1958—2007年的煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故发生数构建时间序列,应用霍斯特时间序列数据的标度行为,提出瓦斯爆炸时间序列的重标极差分析(R/S分析)方法。结果表明:瓦斯爆炸时间序列的霍斯特指数为0.550 2,分形维数为1.449 8,其分式布朗运动轨迹表现出一定的持久性和非高斯性。为诊断瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列变异年份,对时间序列进行分段R/S分析,获得变异年份为1974年,以1974年为分界点构成2个时间序列,霍斯特指数分别为0.589 1和0.697 5,分形维数为1.410 9和1.302 5,与煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列的持久性趋势一致。煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列看似无序却蕴藏规律,反映了系统的动力学变化特征,R/S分析方法可以描述煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故时间序列的动力学特征。     

化学事故危害后果评估与应急救援的辅助决策系统设计

根据重大城市的化学事故后果评估与应急救援的实际需要出发,提出了研制辅助决策系统任务需求和设计构想,阐述了该系统的系统结构、系统实现的流程和系统功能,并做了可行性分析。系统的模块包括：化学品基础信息模块、化学事故类型划分模块、地理信息系统模块、化学源周围道路交通模块、实时的天气预报模块、数学模型模块、危害后果评估模块、救援方案生成模块、人员疏散撤离方案生成模块、人机交互模块。系统与地理信息系统（G IS）、卫星导航系统（GPS）、遥感成像技术结合后能够实现精确定位、快速评估。将物联网技术与系统结合,还可实现对大型固定化学源远程时时监控,确保在事故发生后第一时间掌握信息,为后果评估和应急救援赢得时间,将化学突发事故的危害降到最低。该系统在信息化条件下,较好地为决策者进行化学事故后果评估,为应急救援决策提供了依据,可大幅度提高应急救援效能。     

On the development of a new hybrid risk assessment process using occupational accidents’ data: Application on the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

The occupational accidents have a major impact upon human integrity and also bring about high costs for the social health and insurance system of a country. In addition, risk analysis is an essential process for the safety policy of a company, having as main aim the effacement of any potential of damage in a productive procedure, while the quantified risk evaluation is the most crucial part of the whole procedure of assessing hazards in the work. The main goal of this study is double: a) the development and presentation of a new hybrid risk assessment process (HRAP) and b) the application of HRAP in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) (the unique electric power provider and the largest industry in Greece), by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 12-year period of 1993-2004. The new process consists of four distinct phases a) the hazard sources’ identification phase, b) the risk consideration phase, c) the risk-evaluation phase, and d) the phase of the risk assessment and safety-related decision making. The results show that in some cases the risk value has been calculated in PPC to be higher than 500 (in the risk rating of 0-1000), which imposes the taking of suppressive measures for abolishing the danger source, while the fatal accident frequency rate (per 10⁸ man-hrs) is FAFR ≅ 2.4.